Category Rapports

Jan
2016

Computing Expectations for General SDE with Pure Monte Carlo Methods

RR-FIME-16-01 Mahamadou Doumbia, Nadia Oudjane, Xavier Warin We develop a pure Monte Carlo method to compute E(g(XT )) where g is a bounded and Lipschitz function and Xt an Ito process. This approach extends the method proposed in [7] to the general multidimensional case with a SDE with varying coefficients. A variance reduction method relying on interacting particle systems is also developped.

Sep
2015

Stratified Regression Monte-Carlo Scheme For Semilinear PDES and BSDES with Large Scale Parallelization on GPUS

RR-FiME-15-04 E. GOBET, J. G. LOPEZ-SALAS, P. TURKEDJIEV, AND C. VAZQUEZ In this paper, we design a novel algorithm based on Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) in order to approximate the solution of discrete time Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs). Our algorithm allows massive parallelization of the computations on multicore devices such as graphics processing units (GPUs). Our approach consists of a novel method of stratification which appears to be crucial for large scale parallelization. Read more [...]

Avr
2015

Probabilistic Representation of a Class of Non Conservative Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations

RR-FiME-15-02 Anthony LECAVIL, Nadia OUDJANE and Francesco RUSSO We introduce a new class of nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equations in the sense ofMcKean, related to non conservative nonlinear Partial Differential equations (PDEs). We discuss existence and uniqueness pathwise and in law under various assumptions. We propose an original interacting particle system for which we discuss the propagation of chaos. To this system, we associate a random function which is proved to converge to a solution Read more [...]

Fév
2015

Strategic Capacity Investment under Hold-up Threats: The Role of Contract Length and Width

RR-FiME-15-05 Laure Durand-Viel and Bertrand Villeneuve We analyze the impact of the length of incomplete contracts on investment and surplus sharing. In the bilateral relationship explored, the seller controls the input and the buyer invests. With two-part tariffs, the length of the contract is irrelevant: the surplus is maximal and goes to the seller. In linear contracts, the seller prefers the shortest contract and the buyer the longest one. Further, the commitment period concentrates the incentives, Read more [...]

Jan
2015

Does France Have a Fuel Poverty Trap?

RR-FiME-15-01 Corinne CHATON In this article, we focus on fuel poverty. More specifically, we analyse this phenomenon‟s dynamic by answering the following question: does France have a fuel poverty trap? First, we define three states/situations into which individuals may be placed: the non-fuel poverty state, the fuel poverty state and the severe fuel poverty state. Second, we use a mover-stayer model that divides the population into two types of individuals: those who remain in the same state Read more [...]

Jan
2015

Optimal Pits and Optimal TransportationConservative

RR-FiME-15-03 Ivar Ekeland and Maurice Queyranne In open pit mining, one must dig a pit, that is, excavate the upper layers of ground before reaching the ore. The walls of the pit must satisfy some mechanical constraints, in order not to collapse. The question then arises how to mine the ore optimally, that is, how to …nd the optimal pit. We set up the problem in a continuous (as opposed to discrete) framework, and we show, under weak assumptions, the existence of an optimum pit. For this, we Read more [...]

Jan
2015

Prévention des catastrophes naturelles : viser le long terme sans attendre

RR-FiME-15-06 Céline Grislain-Letrémy and Bertrand Villeneuve Urbanization in areas prone to natural hazards is massive and will grow. Economic analysis offers several tools to contain this phenomenon: insurance pricing in relation to risk, and zoning and building standards in exposed areas. Both approaches are theoretically equivalent, but their applications pose different challenges, and financial incentives were exaggerately reduced in France. In both cases, a more rigorous policy will meet Read more [...]

Déc
2014

A Note on the Spot-Forward No-Arbitrage Relations in an Investment-Production Model for Commodities

RR-FiME-14-06 René Aïd, Luciano Campi, Delphine Lautier Because of storability constraints, standard no-arbitrage arguments cannot be safely applied in markets of commodities such as energy. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to justify the convergence of forward towards spot prices as time-to-maturity goes to zero. We show that the classical no-arbitrage relationship between spot and forward prices holds through the well-posedness of an expected profit maximization problem for Read more [...]

Août
2014

Information Flows across the Futures Term Structure:Evidence from Crude Oil Prices

RR-FiME-14-05 Delphine Lautier, Franck Raynaud and Michel A. Robe We apply the concepts of conditional entropy, information transfers and directed graphs to investigate empirically the propagation of price fluctuations across a futures term structure. We focus on price relationships for North American crude oil futures because this key market experienced several structural changes between 2000 and 2014: financialization (starting in 2003), infrastructure limitations (in 2008-2011) and regulatory Read more [...]

Juil
2014

Integration of Commodity Derivative Markets:Has It Gone Too Far?

RR-FiME-14-04 Delphine LAUTIER, Julien LING and Franck RAYNAUD We examine the impact of two financial crises on commodity derivative markets: the subprime crisis and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. These crises are "external" to the commodity markets because they occurred in the financial sphere. Still, because commodity markets are now highly integrated with each other and with other financial markets, such events could have had an impact. In order to fully comprehend this possible impact, Read more [...]

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