Category Rapports

Nov
2010

A Class of DCC Asymmetric GARCH Models Driven by Exogenous Variables

Jean-Michel Zakoïan This paper considers Dynamic Conditional Correlations (DCC) GARCH models in which the time-varying coefficients, including the conditional correlation matrix, are functions of the realizations of an exogenous stochastic process. Time series generated by this model are in general nonstationary. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of non-explosive solutions, and for the existence of second-order moments of these solutions. Potential applications concern Read more [...]

Oct
2010

A Structural Risk-Neutral Model for Pricing and Hedging Power Derivatives

René Aïd, Luciano Campi, Nicolas Langrené We develop a structural risk-neutral model for energy market modifying along several directions the approach introduced in [Aïd et al., 2009]. In particular a scarcity function is introduced to allow important deviations of the spot price from the marginal fuel price, producing price spikes. We focus on pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. The hedging instruments are forward contracts on fuels and electricity. The presence of production capacities Read more [...]

Oct
2010

Hubbert’s Oil Peak Revisited by a Simulation Model

Pierre-Noël Giraud, Aline Sutter, Timothée Denis, Cédric Léonard As conventional oil reserves are declining, the debate on the oil production peak has become a burning issue. An increasing number of papers refer to Hubbert's peak oil theory to forecast the date of the production peak, both at regional and world levels. However, in our views, this theory lacks microeconomic foundations. Notably, it does not assume that exploration and production decisions in the oil industry depend on market Read more [...]

Juin
2010

Modeling Power Generation Switch as a Real Switching Option: Nucleus Vs. Gas

Moahamed Ben Abdelhamid, Chaker Aloui, Corinne Chaton Given the volatility of the prices of fossil fuels and of environmental constraints, the nuclear power plants can be the least expensive solution to satisfy the demand of electricity. In this paper, we present a dynamic modeling for an optimal operational planning by considering the possibility to switch from natural gas to nuclear power. A switching options approach is applied to address an optimal power generation strategy. We show that, when Read more [...]

Mai
2010

Monte-Carlo Valorisation of American Options: Facts and New Algorithms to Improve Existing Methods

Bruno Bouchard, Xavier Warin The aim of this paper is to discuss efficient algorithms for the pricing of American options by two recently proposed Monte-Carlo type methods, namely the Malliavian calculus and the regression based approaches. We explain how both technics can be exploded with improved complexity and effciency. We also discuss several technics for the estimation of the corresponding hedging strategies. Numerical tests and comparisons, including the quantization approach, are performed. Plus Read more [...]

Mai
2010

No marginal arbitrage of the second kind for high production regimes in discrete time production-investment models with proportional transaction costs

Bruno Bouchard, Adrien Nguyen Huu We consider a class of production-investment models in discrete time with proportional transaction costs. For linear production functions, we study a natural extension of the no-arbitrage of the second kind condition introduced by M. Rasonyi [13]. We show that this condition implies the closedness of the set of attainable claims and is equivalent to the existence of a strictly consistent price system under which the evaluation of future production profits are strictly Read more [...]

Avr
2010

Real Asset Valuation Based on Spot Prices: Can We Forget About Market Fundamentals?

Corinne Chaton, Laure Durand-Viel Real assets are usually valued by assuming a liquid spot market with competitive traders who buy or sell until arbitrage opportunities are exhausted; the value of a real asset is computed as the stream of profits resulting from such transactions. This method ignores market fundamentals by assuming that all the relevant information is included in the spot price. This paper analyses the bias resulting from such an approach when the market is imperfectly competitive. Read more [...]

Avr
2010

Long-Term Electricity Contract Valuation Using Rollover Hedging

René Aïd, François Barjon, Christine Vialas This paper proposes a market-based method to provide a selling price for long-term contract on electricity market. In market-based approaches, one searches to fulfil a given long-term commitment only by selling and buying available futures contracts on the market. The price of the contract is then given by the cost of the best available hedging strategy. Here, the hedging strategy is based on rolling futures of the longest maturity, i.e. successively Read more [...]

Fév
2010

Privatization and Governance Regulation in Frontier Emerging Markets: the Case of Romania

Gilles Chemla Adrian Pop Diana Pop We investigate the link between the regulation of control transactions and the institutional and corporate features of public companies, by analyzing the massive delisting activity in the Romanian capital market. The peculiar ownership reforms involving a large number of listed companies offer a unique opportunity to test Bebchuk and Roe’s (2000) theory of path dependence. Over time, the Romanian authorities have undertaken wide-ranging institutional reforms, Read more [...]

Jan
2010

Competition and Environmental Policies in an Electricity Sector

Corinne Chaton Marie-Laure Guillerminet In this paper, we study the impact of competition and environmental policy (feed-in tari¤s vs. the EU ETS) on investment, CO2 emissions and welfare in an electricity sector. For this purpose, we consider different market structures (private monopoly, planner that maximizes the social welfare, dyopoly) and two types of consumers (consumers depending on weather and the other ones). The demand specification is innovative and takes into account an incompressible Read more [...]

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