Rapports de recherche

The pandemic's impacts on European electricity markets have been enormous, especially in countries with abundant near-zero marginal cost of production like France. This article provides an in-depth quantitative study of the impacts of the crisis on the French electricity sector. During the lockdown episode, France has experienced unparalleled demand reductions (-11.5%) and energy price...

We consider the control of the COVID–19 pandemic via incentives, through either stochastic SIS or SIR compartmental models. When the epidemic is ongoing, the population can reduce interactions between individuals in order to decrease the rate of transmission of the disease, and thus limit the epidemic. However, this effort comes at a cost for...

We formulate an equilibrium model of intraday trading in electricity markets. Agents face balancing constraints between their customers consumption plus intraday sales and their production plus intraday purchases. They have continuously updated forecast of their customers consumption at maturity with decreasing volatility error. Forecasts are prone to idiosyncratic noise as well as common noise...

We develop multistep machine learning schemes for solving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) in high dimension. The method is based on probabilistic representation of PDEs by backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) and its iterated time discretization. In the case of semilinear PDEs, our algorithm estimates simultaneously by backward induction the solution and its gradient...

This paper revisits the problem of computing empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) efficiently on large, multivariate datasets. Computing an ECDF at one evaluation point requires O(N) operations on a dataset composed of N data points. Therefore, a direct evaluation of ECDFs at N evaluation points requires a quadratic O(N^2) operations, which is prohibitive for...

The large reductions in electricity demand caused by the COVID-19 crisis have disrupted electricity systems worldwide. This article draws insights from New York into the consequences of the pandemic for electricity markets. It disentangles the effects of the demand reductions, increased forecast errors, and fuel price drops on the day-ahead and real-time markets. From...